Adionika

Part 13 of 14

Foreign Policy of Montenegro

European integration, NATO and international relations

Montenegro is one of the youngest European states, yet since restoring independence in 2006 it has demonstrated notable diplomatic activity. The country's strategy rests on three interconnected pillars:

  • Full integration into European and Euro-Atlantic structures
  • Maintaining regional stability in the Western Balkans
  • Diversifying external economic ties for sustainable growth

The Young State's Path: Establishing Diplomacy after 2006

The referendum of 21 May 2006, in which 55.5% of citizens voted for separation from Serbia, became the starting point of a new foreign policy era. By the end of June, 182 states had recognised Montenegro's sovereignty; the country received membership in the UN, OSCE and IMF; the first bilateral friendship and mutual assistance agreements were signed.

Fact: to establish its basic embassy network, Montenegro made use of an agreement with Serbia on consular protection — a rare example of pragmatic post-split cooperation. The diplomats' main task was to "embed" the young state within the existing order, ensuring its security and external economic support. Hence the choice of the EU and NATO course as both an "umbrella" and a "reform locomotive" simultaneously.

European Integration: Route, Figures and Prospects

2007Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) signed
2009Candidate status granted
2012First negotiating chapters opened
202233 of 35 chapters open, 3 provisionally closed

Montenegro was the first Western Balkan candidate to move to "screening under the new methodology" focused on the rule of law. By 2025: 78% of EU acquis already implemented; the Rule of Law Index rose from 0.51 (2016) to 0.61; electronic customs control systems synchronised with the EU Customs Data Model.

Obstacles to the Process
  • Corruption and politicisation of the courts. The European Commission annually emphasises the need to depoliticise the Supreme Judicial Council.
  • Historical disputes. The Jasenovac Resolution (2024) strained relations with Croatia, which in an extreme case could temporarily block negotiating chapters 23/24.
  • Low administrative capacity. Only 620 specialists in the state apparatus work on legislative harmonisation — approximately 1,000 will be needed for the final stage.
Realistic Forecast

If the current momentum is maintained and domestic political consensus holds, 2028 remains a plausible accession date, as confirmed by European Commission assessments and the statements of President Jakov Milatović at the GLOBSEC-2025 forum.

NATO: Security, Reforms and Public Division

Montenegro joined the Partnership for Peace programme in January 2007. Then came the Membership Action Plan (2009), an invitation (2015) and official membership on 5 June 2017.

Benefits of Membership
  • Article 5 of the Washington Treaty provides collective defence
  • Army standardisation enabled modernisation of 70% of equipment through NATO funds
  • Foreign direct investment grew 18% between 2017 and 2024
Drawbacks and Controversies
  • In 2016, the opposition brought up to 20,000 protesters onto the streets demanding a referendum
  • Accession caused a cooling in relations with Moscow, traditionally viewed as the "Orthodox patron"

Interesting: in the three years after accession, support for NATO membership rose from 46% to 62% — the argument "security = investment" proved persuasive.

Russia: From Romance to Confrontation

From 2006 to 2013, Montenegro was called the "Russian Riviera": Russians owned 13% of coastal property; tourist arrivals exceeded 300,000 per season; investments by EN+ Group and Inter RAO planned modernisation of hydro- and thermal energy infrastructure.

The turning point was 2014 and EU sanctions. Montenegro synchronised its restrictive measures regime with Brussels, and in 2016 added a further 149 individuals to the list. Key events:

2016Allegations of a Russian-backed coup attempt (October)
2017NATO accession
2022Freezing of 44 Russian-owned properties

Figure: according to Ministry of Finance estimates, the cumulative tourism sector losses from the disappearance of the Russian market amount to approx. €4 billion for 2014–2024, but these have been partially offset by visitors from Germany and the Middle East. Today diplomatic relations are at a minimum, and trade turnover has fallen fivefold.

The Balkans: Between Cooperation and Historical Memory

Montenegro is strengthening ties within the CEFTA, Adriatic-Ionian and "Open Balkan" initiatives, advancing projects:

Trans-Balkan Energy Bridge (Adriatic — Western Balkans)Bar – Belgrade – Budapest Railway Corridor
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Dispute with Croatia: Over historical resolutions, including the Jasenovac Resolution (2024)
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Kosovo's unresolved status: Complicates dialogue with Serbia
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Ethno-political factor: Serbs make up ~28% of Montenegro's population, which is reflected in the electoral map

International Organisations: A Small Country's Voice

OrganisationYear of AccessionBenefits
UN2006Access to development funds, peacekeeping operations
Council of Europe2007Human rights monitoring, Venice Commission
Interpol2006Exchange of criminal data
WTO (observer)Full membership negotiations ongoing since 2012

The UN platform allows Montenegro to actively lobby the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals) agenda, while membership in the WHO Small States Initiative provides grants for healthcare digitalisation.

Current Challenges of 2025

Political polarisation: Coalitions change on average every 18 months; investors are nervous.
Demographic outflow: One in five young professionals considers relocating to the EU.
Climate vulnerability: Rising Adriatic sea levels could affect 60% of beach infrastructure by 2050.
Tourism dependence: The sector generates 24% of GDP; diversification through IT outsourcing and renewable energy is the government's new focus.

Montenegro is taking the "short road" to the European family, seeking to monetise its geographical position and image as a "boutique destination" on the Adriatic. But unfinished judicial reforms, unresolved historical disputes in the Balkans, and a cooling in relations with its former principal tourist market — Russia — are making this path less straightforward. The success of foreign policy up to 2030 will depend on whether Podgorica can maintain the political balance between "West and traditional partners", build institutional resilience and align itself with the EU's green agenda.